A FULL PANTRY, PRUDENT OR LUNACY

Over the last four decades the businesses and corporations in the United States have shifted their philosophy on storage and stock piling of goods to a “just in time supply” mode. In other words, there is little to no “stock” or stored items in the store. All the merchandise, food, etc. comes in just in time for the consumer to purchase it. This has been a real cost saver to the businesses that, before the “just in time supply”, had to carry large amounts of merchandise and hold it for long periods of time. Their cash flow is better and the cost of holding those goods is virtually gone. “Just in time supply” was and is good for business but what about the consumer in today’s world?

Over the last four decades the businesses and corporations in the United States have shifted their philosophy on storage and stock piling of goods to a “just in time supply” mode. In other words, there is little to no “stock” or stored items in the store. All the merchandise, food, etc. comes in just in time for the consumer to purchase it. This has been a real cost saver to the businesses that, before the “just in time supply”, had to carry large amounts of merchandise and hold it for long periods of time. Their cash flow is better and the cost of holding those goods is virtually gone. “Just in time supply” was and is good for business but what about the consumer in today’s world?
Things have changed in the world over the past three decades. The world is no longer the same. The word terrorist wasn’t a daily byword thirty years ago. People didn’t know what jihad meant nor did they care. America was an exporter of crude oil, not an importer. Oil was abundant. The United States was safe from attacks from foreign powers. But what about today?
Today we are constantly under the threat of attack. If you don’t believe me just go to an airport where the “terrorist threat meter” has been stuck on orange, meaning almost immanent, for years. The reports of plots to kill Americans in the U.S. thwarted by the F.B.I. and other law enforcement agencies are commonplace.
The U.S. now imports 60% of it’s oil and most of that is from sources that are antagonistic to the United States or on the verge of civil war. One hiccup in one area of the oil delivery system will slow down or stop deliveries of goods and services across parts or all of the U.S.. A disruption in oil supply could happen from many different directions: terrorist attack here in the United States, terrorist attack on any of the oil refineries or distribution points around the globe, civil war in one or more of the African nations, war with Iran, Iran choosing to close the Straits of Hormuz, hurricane or hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, South American country or countries cut off their supply of oil to the US, flu virus pandemic. All of these and more are possibilities that can stop the fragile flow of goods to the stores in your local area.
How long does it take to run the grocery stores out of goods and produce? Just ask one of the many people who have lived in the path of a hurricane. I bet their experiences were similar to mine. I was living on Cape Cod when it was announced on the radio that we were in for a Noreaster (big storm off the Atlantic). I was in college at the time and was headed for class. After class I went to the store to get some extra supplies. And what did my wondering eyes see at the store? Nothing! Everything was gone! I had never been to a grocery store and seen that before but in a matter of two hours people had cleaned out the store.
The idea of stockpiling food and necessary items like toilet paper etc. came into full force during the Y2K scare. So many people considered it lunacy to store extra supplies and food because of that. So the question begs, is it prudent or is it lunacy to store more than a weeks worth of food and necessary items.
To answer that we would best be served by looking at the way people live that are outside of the “just in time “ supply chain. This would include our grandparents and perhaps our parents. To our grandparents and great grandparents food was a seasonal commodity. Pears, peaches, carrots, peas, and all of the other fruits and vegetables were grown in summer and if they wanted to have these in their diet come winter they would can this produce and have it in stored in a pantry. Some people would have a root cellar that stored fresh apples and fresh vegetables such as carrots, potatoes, beets and other tuber type veggies.
The further away from the cities and towns people lived the more food and necessary items they stored because they didn’t know when they would get to town. It wasn’t uncommon for a family to have enough food stored to last until the next harvest, that’s a full year.
With the advent of freezers the way some foods were stored changed and it was easier for the grocery stores to keep a continuing supply of frozen foods in stock. Thus, the need to put up food for the year diminished.
So, what about now? We are arguably the most advanced civilization in the history of the world. We have a supply system that brings us fruits and vegetables and beef and teas and coffees from the farthest reaches of the earth, on demand. Our clothes, hair dryers, dolls, shoes, car parts and just about everything else is made thousands of miles from our coastline and brought to us just in time.
All of this is hanging on the thread of oil dependency. If any one of a myriad of possibilities comes to pass the “just in time” signs will be replaced with “sorry we’re closed” signs. Is this negative thinking? Is this government and industry bashing? I don’t think so. I think it is common sense.
Another question you can ask yourself is “how much do I trust the government and big business.” If you have implicit trust in the Government and big business then you have no worries. But, on the other hand, you have a level of distrust or uncertainty then perhaps you should think through your stock in the pantry.
I, personally, have lost a lot of my trust in our government and in the ability of the stores and businesses to keep the shelves full in the time of crisis. So, I am one of those that believe that having an extra supply of food in the pantry is prudent and that it will not only help me but I will be one less person our government will have to worry about in a time of crisis.
If you are prepared for an emergency then it won’t be an emergency for you. For example, if you are out on a hike in the woods and a cold front and associated snow storm moves in and all you’re wearing are shorts and a shirt and all you are carrying is a fanny pack with a granola bar and a bottle of water then you may well be in serious trouble. If you take that same scenario only this time you are carrying a hooded winter jacket, a pair of gloves and your shorts are the type that you can zip the legs on for a full set of pants and you have food for a day, fire starter, a back pack stove, hot chocolate, a mess kit, tent, GPS and a map THEN the bad weather would only be an inconvenience and not life threatening.
Another way of looking at it is as if your storehouse of goods and groceries is an insurance policy that doesn’t cost anything if done right.
The best way that I have found for having extra food is to do just that, have extra. For example peanut butter, instead of having one jar in the cupboard have two or three and when you are done with the open jar replace it with another jar but use the oldest jar in the rotation line. This is called rotating your stock. Simple, I know, but effective. The same goes for frozen foods, toilet paper, aspirin, etc.. Just be careful that you don’t buy something that you won’t use before it expires.
In this crazy and turbulent world that we live in it is not only prudent but necessary to have extra food and supplies on hand.